Guesstimation Toolkit

01. Understanding Guesstimates

  • Definition and Importance of Guesstimates
  • Real-world Applications (Consulting, Management, Business Strategy)
  • Approaches to Estimation: Top-down vs. Bottom-up

02. Basic Framework

  • Problem Breakdown
  • Making Logical Assumptions
  • Setting Up Estimations and Verifications

03. Numeracy & Calculation Skills

  • Quick Mental Math Techniques
  • Rounding Off Numbers for Approximation
  • Handling Large Numbers and Units Conversion

04. Restaurants & Food Services

  • Market Sizing: Number of fast-food outlets, cafes, or fine-dining restaurants in a city.
  • Operational Metrics: Average daily sales, customer footfall, table turnover rate.
  • Revenue Estimation: Monthly/annual revenue of a food chain, average order value.

05. Automobiles

  • Vehicle Sales: Annual sales of different vehicle types (cars, bikes, EVs).
  • Market Penetration: Market share of specific car brands or models.
  • Service & Maintenance: Number of car repair shops, annual service revenue.

06. Retail & FMCG

  • Product Sales: Units sold for a specific product (e.g., toothpaste, detergent).
  • Store Operations: Number of outlets of a retail chain in a region
  • Revenue Forecasting: Annual sales revenue, promotional campaign impact.

07. Technology & E-commerce

  • User Metrics: Daily active users, app downloads, website traffic.
  • Transaction Volume: Number of online orders during peak sales (festivals, events).
  • Revenue Streams: Revenue from subscriptions, advertisements, e-commerce sales.

08. Travel & Tourism

  • Tourist Visits: Number of visitors to a popular destination (city, theme park, historic site).
  • Hotel Metrics: Hotel occupancy rates, average daily rate (ADR), revenue per available room (RevPAR).
  • Seasonal Demand: Peak vs. off-season tourist numbers, impact on revenue.

09. Real Estate & Construction

  • Property Sales: Number of residential/commercial units sold, rental units.
  • Market Valuation: Average property prices in urban vs. rural areas.
  • Construction Metrics: Cost of construction per square foot, project completion timelines.

10. Media & Entertainments

  • Content Consumption: Number of movie tickets sold, TV show ratings, streaming service subscribers.
  • Advertising Revenue: Revenue from advertisements on TV, online platforms, print media.
  • Box Office Metrics: Weekly/annual box office collections, number of screens per cinema chain.

11. Banking & Financial Services

  • Customer Base: Number of bank account holders, credit card users.
  • Loan Disbursement: Number of loans (home, auto, personal) sanctioned annually.
  • Revenue Streams: Annual revenue from interest, transaction fees, investment products.